U.S. Real Estate Buzz

Existing-Home Sales Down in January but Higher than a Year Ago; Prices Steady

2010-03-19T12:28:00.000-07:00

Washington, February 26, 2010

Existing-home sales fell in January but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5 percent to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply² at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6 percent below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

The national median existing-home price³ for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey⁴ shows first-time buyers purchased 40 percent of homes in January, down from 43 percent in December. Investors accounted for 17 percent of transactions in January, up from 15 percent in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4 percent in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said.

“Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. Realtors® are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03 percent in January from 4.93 percent in December; the rate was 5.05 percent in January 2009.

Single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6 percent above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1 percent above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price⁵ was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 percent higher than January 2009.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9 percent in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0 percent from January 2009.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6 percent higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, and is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

1 The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
Each February, NAR Research incorporates a review of seasonal activity factors and fine-tunes historic data for the previous three years based on the most recent findings. Revisions have been made to monthly seasonally adjusted annual sales rates for 2007 through 2009, as well as the inventory month's supply data. There are no revisions to raw inventory; however, there are adjustments to monthly home prices for the past year.

2 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, condos were measured quarterly while single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions).

3 The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

4 First-time buyer, investor and distressed sales data are from the Realtor® Confidence Index.

5 Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for February will be released March 23. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for March 4; release times are 10 a.m. ET.

Michael B. Marechal,

CCIM, GRI, R.E. Masters

Marechal – California Real Estate Brokerage Services

No Meaningful Recovery in Commercial Real Estate Before 2011

2010-03-03T18:20:00.000-08:00

Washington, February 23, 2010

Although the economy has been growing lately, fallout from the recent recession continued to negatively impact commercial real estate sectors in the fourth quarter, but there is hope for some improvement next year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said commercial real estate almost always lags the economy. “Because of the lingering impact from the deep recession over the past two years, vacancy rates will trend higher and many commercial property owners will need to make rent concessions,” he said.
“With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” Yun said. “At the same time, improved consumer confidence would help sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental market.”
Yun notes that commercial vacancy rates remain high in most market areas and are depressing rents.
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 700 local market experts,¹ suggests a flattening level of business activity in upcoming quarters with 55 percent of members expecting the market to improve in the second quarter.
The SIOR index rose 0.2 percentage point to 35.5 in the fourth quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the first gain following 11 consecutive quarterly declines. Although some indicators show that a decline in commercial property values is beginning to flatten, 86 percent of respondents report prices are below replacement costs.
Nearly nine in 10 survey participants said new commercial development is virtually nonexistent in their market areas, and rent concessions are reported almost everywhere.
An independent survey earlier this month showed a couple dozen banks are willing to expand commercial credit this year, which is critical. The lending expansion is aided by the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, which is encouraging issuance of commercial mortgage-backed bonds. In addition, regulators are prodding lenders to extend terms for many existing commercial loans.
“We have a long way to go for satisfactory levels of commercial credit, but these are important first steps,” Yun said. “Given that about $1.4 trillion in commercial debt will come due over the next three years, more extensive action is needed and the Fed needs to more actively help resuscitate commercial mortgage-backed securities. The credit improvement will mean more commercial property sales in 2010, even some at deeply discounted prices.”
Looking at the overall market, commercial vacancy rates generally will stay at elevated levels, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK.² The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Office Market
With a lot of sublease space currently on the market, vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to rise from 16.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter of this year; the longer term outlook is for vacancies to average 17.4 percent in 2011.
Annual office rent is projected to decline 7.2 percent in 2010, following a drop of 12.7 percent last year. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be a negative 27.3 million square feet in 2010.
Industrial Market
There is proportionately less industrial sublease space on the market than in the office sector, but obsolescence remains a factor. Industrial vacancy rates will probably rise from 13.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 14.9 percent in the closing quarter of 2010; they could average 14.5 percent next year.
Annual industrial rent is likely to fall 9.6 percent this year, after declining 10.9 percent in 2009. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 93.5 million square feet in 2010.
Retail Market
Retail vacancy rates are expected to edge up from 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 12.7 percent in the same period of this year, and may hold at that level in 2011.
Average retail rent is forecast to decline 2.4 percent in 2010, following a drop of 4.0 percent in 2009. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should be a negative 3.4 million square feet this year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is poised to gain from a rise in household formation. Multifamily vacancy rates are likely to decline from 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, and possibly edge down to 6.1 percent next year.
Average rent is projected to decline 3.4 percent this year, following a decline 3.6 percent in 2009. Multifamily net absorption is expected to be 115,000 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
More than 81,000 NAR and institute affiliate members offer commercial brokerage services.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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1 The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, conducted by SIOR and analyzed by NAR Research, is a diffusion index based on market conditions as viewed by local SIOR experts. For more information contact Richard Hollander, SIOR, at 202/449-8200.
2 Publication of additional analysis, including metropolitan data, will be posted under Economists’ Commentary in the Research area of Realtor.org in coming weeks.
The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on May 26.

Michael B. Marechal,

CCIM, GRI, R.E. Masters

Marechal – California Real Estate Brokerage Services

Can an LLC obtain a broker

2010-02-23T17:45:00.001-08:00

Can an LLC obtain a broker’s license?

Posted using ShareThis

U.S. Real Estate Update 2010

2010-02-19T08:59:00.000-08:00

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This short overview of our current economic and real estate conditions is what I think, presented in a simplistic, broad-brush narrative of the affairs that lead us to where we are today with some realistic long term ideas to prosperity and solid economic recovery and growth.

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History

First, we know every industry is like the tide each with it’s own ebbs and flows. To be certain the real estate market is experiencing these changes, so in many respects this is very normal. The real estate industry’s ebb and flow is generally 10 to 12 years. The last time we hit bottom was at or around 1995-1997. What’s not normal is how dramatic this occurrence really is. The ripple effect is clearly worldwide, which illustrates this is not just a real estate problem but a financial one also. We did have a disastrous real estate market in the mid to late 1970’s, which, resembles much of what we’re going through today but it was more of a national problem than worldwide.

Current

The current state of our economy is a direct result of several factors that have been building for many years. The main contributing factor in my estimation, which is usually the case, is government policies. What government does and or does not do effects all us in profound ways, such as raising taxes, creating regulations, and spending policies to name a few, and of course politics; in short this is social engineering. The courses of action our politicians adopt have a direct effect on how we live our lives, how we invest money and what we invest in. Investors invest in assets that will make them money or provide them the means to do so.

For the past 5 to 6 years, the real estate market had been flooded with new home buyers previously renters, along with many “step-up” home buyers. Financing was very easy to get for most people, many of who perhaps should have never had it so easy. With that, poor spending habits ensued throughout the general population, in other word’s we were acquiring large amounts of debt without the income to match. Many businesses such as the financial institutions also had their fair share of shady dealings. Additionally, Governments at all levels were doing the same thing. They've never seen this kind of money come in at such a fast pace and of course with policies put in place years before you get an economic condition, i.e. government spending, regulations, taxes & fees that couldn't be absorbed anymore by the general population, corporations and the financial institutions. A very serious unstable market had been created.

Finally, if all the previous spending wasn’t enough, the government went on a monumental spending binged over the past 10 months dragging the economy further down. Now you may ask why is this so important? It’s because everything the government does, as I have said, has a profound effect on each and every one of us. Why? Investors and investments! It’s no accident that we have the most dynamic and advanced economy in the world. The United States embraced an open market place long ago where investors, influential people, empire builders and entrepreneurs alike have the freedom to invest their money, products and ideas into our system. No other place in the world can you do this quite the same way.

The problem is over the past 20 or so years corporate regulation and tax burdens are out of control, Influence on public employees to do favors has never been so far-reaching and nearly 50 % of the population doesn’t pay income taxes. The country has been changing in ways, which leads the Movers & Shakers to rethinking their investment strategies. Earning money has some how now become a bad thing politically. Be clear making money is a good thing and should never be frowned upon. Not withstanding unethical and illegal activities.

The Investor class of people are very astute, and rests assure they are watching everything going on, and until they see clear skies ahead they will either remain on the sideline or invest elsewhere. Several things in the near term need to happen before we can see clear skies. Solutions

The financial markets need to finish cleaning-up their books with their bad debts, which will lead to improved lending.
Taxes in all forms including “pass-through taxes” such as the new Cap & Trade energy tax cannot go up and or be implemented as they are scheduled too. Congress must keep this from happening.
Congress must repeal the planned stimulus-spending bill, which will go into high gear just after the 2010 elections.
Commercial real estate, nationwide, is headed for huge loan defaults unless something allows the property owners a way to refinance without adding cash equity into the asset we will see more than 700 Billion dollars of loan defaults; this will be ugly.
Interest rates must remain low and balanced with possible inflation and deflation conditions.

Once the above happens and or moves in that direction businesses can once again begin their empire building, which leads to growth, which will spark employment, which will allow mom & pop investments to occur. Remember 80% of jobs are from small businesses. The employment market must be stabilized! Then the residential housing market can go into a full recovery swing that will promote a more stable economy. We believe residential real estate will lead commercial real estate out of this recession. Additionally, Multifamily will lead the way in the commercial market. Long term, we need to be concerned with public policy and the spending that comes with it. It is my opinion; we should embrace and employ a whole new breed of Entrepreneurship along with a core focus on Research & Development in all of our industries. This type of R&D spending will help ensure future growth of our economy. In order to have a strong real estate marketplace we need a strong economy. In order to have a strong economy we need good public representatives. The people of this great country need to understand, we will be better served to plan the future many, many years ahead of time should we plan to continue to lead the way for the rest. We have a great economic system and therefore the promotion of such a system should be pursued.

Bright Side

Loan defaults will spark a lot of buying with new money.

By 2010-11 we should be on our way to recovery and out of this mess by 2013 as long as government policies improve.

Interest rates should remain low for a little while.

Our country has always bounced back each time we’ve gone through recessionary periods.

More to come.